Forthcoming · Journal of Investment Management
Where Alpha Cannot Be Measured: Regime-Conditional Performance Attribution
Mark Tennenbaum
The research behind FlightDeck’s Pure Beta / Alpha Opportunity framework.
Flight Club
Flight Club
Research and market notes from FlightDeck
Written by Mark Tennenbaum, CIO, from what the tools showed at the time: how we read the market, what we did about it, and the method underneath. Each article opens on FlightDeck in a new tab; this site stays open behind it.
Start here
The Alpha Convergence white paper
The complete systematic method: how the regime classification works, what triggers position changes, how the rules behave through a rate shock, the live record, and the full table of tests. The institutional white paper for Alpha Convergence: our rules-based equity strategy that identifies temporary mispricing through the convergence of multiple independent signals.
From the CIO
The CIO’s notes
Clients receive a weekly note summarizing the market and how we are moving through it. Past weekly notes are here to read, stamped SAMPLE.
Research series
How the tools work
The Research series explains how each FlightDeck tool works and which question it answers.
- 26 Feb 2026 · Research 001Reading the WeatherMost market dashboards tell you what happened. Ours tells you what kind of day it is.
- 26 Feb 2026 · Research 002Storm Classification and the Drawdown ProblemEvery investor talks about managing risk. Very few can tell you in near real time the kind of risk environment in which they are most likely sitting.
- 26 Feb 2026 · Research 003Scenario Replay Is Not a BacktestBacktesting is the most abused word in finance.
Telemetry
Here’s what we’ve been thinking
Telemetry contains a variety of CIO articles ranging from current economic issues to observations and finance industry insight.
- 7 Oct 2026 · Telemetry 017Eight Billion HamletsAI raises the floor of creative work and narrows its variety. In culture the cost is flavor; in markets it is correlated risk. The tails are still ours to keep.
- 23 Sep 2026 · Telemetry 016The Industry Sells Forecasts. Investors Need a GPS.Forecasts decay fastest on the questions investors most want answered. A regime readout of where we are, and how comparable stretches resolved, stays useful while the future is unresolved.
- 23 Sep 2026 · Telemetry 015AI Agents: The Next Liability FrontierThe market priced Meta’s Muse as the end of consumer inertia. Judgment, authority and liability point to a smaller market, and to who pays when the agent is wrong.
- 22 Jun 2026 · Telemetry 014Portfolio Diversity in Action: A Live Case StudyA short-seller attack took one name down about 45% in three trading days. Construction kept the damage from spreading, and a near-identical sibling book let us watch containment in real time.
- 17 May 2026 · Telemetry 013What Will Force the Market to Look Forward Again?The resolution has moved to a new set of branches. The repricing is scheduled, not imminent.
- 25 Apr 2026 · Telemetry 012Economic Tsunami WatchSix paths through the May 14 summit. Even the best case carries trillions in damage.
- 19 Apr 2026 · Telemetry 011How Long Can the Market Look Through a Closed Strait?The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 50 days. It has never been closed before in the modern era.
- 29 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 010Is Your Portfolio Rigged for Rough Seas?We ran our expired flagship equity portfolio through three historical crises (GFC, Dot-Com, 2022 Rate Shock). It was not built for any of them. The shape of damage matters as much as depth.
- 22 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 009The Compound Fracture: What Breaks When Everything Bends at Once?Six market stressors are not independent events. They are links in a chain, and when one accelerates it adds velocity to the others. Our base case: correction at 50%, crash at 25%.
- 21 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 008What a Structural Warning Looks LikeInside the Storm Center readings that triggered a reallocation, and why Day 1 of a cluster is the moment that matters.
- 12 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 007Hormuz: The Structural DamageWhy the economic tail extends months beyond any ceasefire, and what that means for positioning. An update to Hormuz: What Happens Next.
- 7 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 006The AI Air PocketWhat happens when $700 billion in infrastructure outruns the three speeds of enterprise integration, and which clock is the market pricing.
- 6 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 005Hormuz: What Happens NextFive resolution paths, what each one requires, and what to watch to know which one we are on. The war is being covered. The deal is being made. Those are two different stories.
- 3 Mar 2026 · Telemetry 004Strait of Hormuz: This Is Not 1979The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Markets are pricing a 1979 replay. We believe the structural conditions that made 1979 what it was do not exist today.
- 27 Feb 2026 · Telemetry 003What Edge Is Left?Markets have always been inefficient. So if inefficiency creates opportunity, why do index funds still beat most active managers most of the time?
- 20 Feb 2026 · Telemetry 002The Auction of OpinionsIs there any more complex game than investing? Over my career, I've bought and sold companies as well as stock.
- 16 Feb 2026 · Telemetry 001Now BoardingThe hardest question in investing is not which stocks to buy. It is how to know whether the person buying them for you is any good. The industry answers with reputation and tenure.
Backstage tour
See it running live
A live screen-share of FlightDeck with Mark Tennenbaum, CIO: the command center driven in real time, how today’s market is classified and what the book does about it, and the record with the tests behind it.